In recent years, particularly within the context of accelerating global urbanization challenges, sustainable housing has evolved rapidly and comprehensively into a crucial and fundamental aspect of sustainable development and urban planning. Initially viewed merely as a basic need for shelter, housing now encompasses criteria essential for creating resilient and efficient living systems. These include social, economic, environmental, and technical dimensions balanced to ensure environmental responsibility and social equity. Achieving this balance requires a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing development and a clear prioritization of these factors. Identifying and effectively prioritizing these elements is essential for achieving long-term sustainability goals.This study assumes more than half of the land in Iranian cities is devoted to residential use, yet there is a notable lack of attention to sustainable development principles in housing design. The concept of sustainable housing in Iran is particularly pertinent due to diverse and geographically challenging climatic zones and rich historical architectural traditions. Vernacular Iranian housing, carefully adapted to local conditions, demonstrates sustainability principles that are deeply relevant to modern designs. For instance, in hot and dry regions, traditional wind catchers and underground spaces provide natural cooling, significantly reducing reliance on energy-intensive mechanical systems. A critical source of environmental pollution in Iran is the use of fossil energy for heating and hot water, which is significantly mitigated through solar energy and efficient insulation.
Furthermore, rapid and widespread urbanization, coupled with significant internal migration, have intensified the urgent need for sustainable housing solutions. According to recent UN-Habitat reports, key focus areas in Iran include human settlements development, resilient cities, environmental protection, and basic urban infrastructure and services. However, significant structural obstacles to sustainable planning remain, particularly regarding affordable housing for low and middle-income households. This specific research aims to systematically identify, analyze, and prioritize key indicators influencing sustainable housing development in Iran. The study focuses on sustainable development approaches and utilizes the Analytic Network Process (ANP) model. The objective is to provide a scientific framework to guide housing policy, ensuring the implementation of sustainable practices. The ANP model incorporates both qualitative and quantitative factors simultaneously and effectively, allowing a comprehensive understanding of the complex landscape. It is suitable for complex systems with interdependent elements.
The primary research question is: Which indicators and criteria have the most critical and significant impact on sustainable housing development in Iran, and how can they be rigorously analyzed and prioritized using the ANP model? This question reflects the need for an evidence-based approach considering technical, social, economic, and environmental aspects. Prioritizing the right indicators is crucial to aligning strategies with sustainability goals.
The adopted methodology follows a rigorous analytical-comparative approach. Four primary criteria were identified as significant: Social, Physical-Spatial, Environmental, and Economic. These were carefully selected based on their direct relevance to Iran’s housing sector challenges. The criteria include: Social (quality of social life, access to services, social participation, security); Physical-Spatial (design architecture, infrastructure, green space, quality of construction); Environmental (optimization of energy consumption, renewable resources, reduction of pollution); and Economic (costs of construction and maintenance, profitability, access to financial resources).
Data were systematically and rigorously collected, compiled, and analyzed through structured and detailed surveys of experts, including urban planners, architects, and economists. The survey aimed to gather expert opinions on the relative importance of various criteria. To determine weights, pairwise comparison techniques were used. Fuzzy scales were applied to handle uncertainty in judgments, allowing for nuanced assessments. This approach helped create a more accurate model for evaluating the impact of different criteria. Data analysis was conducted using the Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (Fuzzy ANP) model. This model suits decision-making scenarios where interdependencies exist between criteria. The fuzzy extension helps deal with vagueness in human opinions, improving result robustness.
The analysis was conducted in four steps: Step 1: Identification of criteria and formulation of network structure. Based on an extensive, systematic, and thorough literature review and expert panel, 4 main criteria and 11 sub-criteria were identified. Unlike hierarchical models, mutual dependencies among criteria were considered. The matrix of interdependencies shows all main criteria influence one another. Step 2: Analysis of fuzzy pairwise comparison matrices. Comparisons were performed using a 9-degree fuzzy spectrum. The inconsistency rates for all matrices were consistently less than 0.1. Step 3: Supermatrix analysis and extraction of weighted weights. The unweighted supermatrix was formed and normalized to weighted. It was raised to obtain the limit supermatrix, ensuring convergence of weights. The resulting limit supermatrix weights were calculated and found to be: Social (0.260), Physical-Spatial (0.240), Environmental (0.220), and Economic (0.280). Step 4: Calculation of final weights and prioritization. The final weights for sub-criteria are: Economic profitability of business activities (0.1484), Access to basic facilities and services (0.1274), Housing resistance and quality (0.1128), Energy efficiency of buildings (0.1012), Security (0.1144), Green space quality (0.1032), Access to public transportation (0.1092), Environmental pollution (0.0902), Vitality (0.1040), Appropriate density (0.0912), and Identity (0.0962).
Research findings revealed that economic and social criteria had the most significant and measurable impact on the final integrated model. Among the sub-criteria, economic profitability (0.1484) and access to basic facilities (0.1274) consistently secured the highest level of relative priority. These significant results emphasize the urgent need for financially viable projects and accessible essential services. Housing resistance (0.1128) and energy efficiency (0.1012) were also important, underscoring the vital role of durable and efficient buildings. Building resistance ensures safety against natural disasters common in Iran, while energy efficiency reduces costs and environmental impact. Other factors like green space quality (0.1032), appropriate density (0.0912), and environmental pollution (0.0902) were lower in priority but remain essential contributors. Results were validated through inconsistency rates, sensitivity analysis, and expert review.
Discussion findings clearly indicate that economic profitability and access to basic services are the most prominent factors. This aligns closely with previous studies but is now rigorously confirmed quantitatively. The clear superiority of economic factors over others underscores the absolute necessity of sustainable financial foundations for housing sustainability. The innovation is largely in using fuzzy ANP for mutual relations, providing a more nuanced analysis than traditional methods. This research localizes approaches for Iran by focusing on cultural dimensions, filling gaps in international models. Limitations include the limited number of experts and the need for future regional adjustments and contextual calibration.
In conclusion, in order to achieve sustainable housing in Iran, more emphasis should be placed on the economic and social dimensions. Specifically, specific factors such as economic profitability, immediate and equitable access to essential services, housing resilience, and energy efficiency should be prioritized. The Fuzzy ANP model has proven to be a valuable tool for understanding the complex relationships between sustainability criteria, offering accurate results. The insights gained can guide policymakers, urban planners, and designers in developing sustainable housing projects that meet current needs and contribute to long-term environmental sustainability. Furthermore, by drawing from the Third United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development, Iran can adopt strategies for the prevention and control of climate impacts in housing. Incorporating vernacular architecture principles and addressing obstacles can enhance sustainable housing. Retrofitting existing buildings with passive techniques reduces pollution. Iran's strategic vision for climate change and sustainable development focuses on prevention. Prioritizing these indicators aligns Iran's housing sector with ambitious, transformative, and necessary global goals for resilient urban development.